Everyone should read…..

Mr Egypt’s (an Egyptian scholar)  long  comment on my recent postabout Arab reactions to the US elections.  If some people  think I’m being negative about the results of the US elections, I’m not.  My concern is that Arab reactions to the results are being widely misread in the US.  Its a critical strategic issue to understand the reactions, and I don’t think this is happening so far.  Middle East policy  based on exaggerated  or an  inaccurate sense of  US “soft-power” can be disastrous.

Scheuer on Al-Qaeda in the Levant

The always must-read Mike Scheuer, former head of the Bin Laden unit and author of  Imperial_Hubris is doing a 4 part-series :

 that will assess the initial stages of the penetration of the Levant by al-Qaeda and other Islamist groups. This piece will look at Syria, and will be followed by analyses of the bleed-through from Iraq into Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel. The quartet of articles will seek to assess the validity of the recent claim by the state-run Syrian newspaper Al-Thawara that because of the war in Iraq “the [Levant] region is throbbing with terrorists.”

Here’s parts one and  two.  About a month ago, a friend of MediaShack published a long_piece in The National on the same topic.

Arabs Relying on Britain and Israel for their History?

Robert Fisk  highlights  a serious problem in studying contemporary Middle Eastern politics and history- the lack of access to archives:

LONDON: In Damascus, a massive statue of the late President Hafez Al-Assad sits on a mighty iron chair outside the 22,000 square meters Assad Library, a giant book open in his right hand.

Behind him lie the archives of his dictatorship. But not a single state paper is open to the people of Syria. There are no archives from the foreign ministry or the interior ministry or the defense ministry. There is no 30-year rule — for none is necessary. The rule is forever. There is no Public Record Office in the Arab world, no scholars waiting outside the National Archives.

It is the same in Cairo, in Riyadh, in Beirut and in Tripoli. Dictatorships and caliphates do not give away their secrets. The only country in the Middle East where you can burrow through the files is called Israel — and good for the Israelis.

Fisk is spot-on.  On any controversial or sensitive political or security issue, researchers, Arab or foreign, have almost no chance of getting access to the local records, which is critical.   After all, noone could write a decisive book about the First World War if they had access to only the French archives but not the German, or vice versa.    In Europe, one can get access to the most sensitive documents, at least after 30 years, and we have a pretty decisive understanding of the events of the First and Second World Wars.   Not so in the Middle East.   Take for example,  Arabs_at_War: Military Effectiveness 1948-1991, an overall outstanding book.   The one thing that sticks out, however, is that 99% of the sources used are American or Israeli, which is a serious problem.  That being said,  there aren’t many sources the author could have consulted as they are all closed to the public.

On this topic,  if anyone ever has time to kill in London- go to the National Archives at Kew Gardens.  It is a gold-mine.  In the time it takes to make a few clicks on a compter screen, one can get access to virtually any file of importance  on say the Second World War, British foreign affairs,  or even more contemporary issues such as the IRA.  Its amazing how useful and organized their database is, which is in stark contrast to the situation in France where files are  highly disorganized, and highly (comparaitvely) decentralized, and one has to go through more red-tape just to get access.  In London, one can show up the day off, sign up for a library card within minutes, whereas in France, it takes  much longer to get access.  Although, my lack of research success in France probably had something to do with my mediocre French language skills.

Check in tomorow…..

for a post  on tonight’s episode of the Al-Jazeera political  talk show Al-Itijah Al-Muakis (The Opposite Direction) on the US elections.   Tonight’s first post-elections show has the potential to be a great one. 

Speaking of Obama and the Middle East, Professor Mark Levine  (whose book is on my to-read list) goes beyond the change rhetoric and has an outstanding analysis of the nature of the challenges he will face in the region.  A very good, must-read article.