Heikal speaks on Iran

Mohamed Hussenayn Heikal, the prominent Egyptian historian/ journalist, made a special appearance 6/29 on Al-Jazeera to discuss Iran.   (For more background on Heikal see here.)   According to this article,  Heikal said that  “foreign hands” almost certainly played a major role in instigating the riots, and  also says that there is an American strategy to change the regime [...]

Sounding just like Dick Cheney

Is Juan Cole advocating regime change in Iran?  A  guest_columnist at his blog certainly seems to be:
It would be a mistake to think that people like Ahmadinejad are reasonable. It is counter productive to base policy on the untenable premise that he would be amenable to a cost-benefit analysis on the nuclear issue. Time and again [...]

Interview on Al-Qaeda

Lawrence Wright, author of what is probably the best_book on Al-Qaeda, said some interesting things in an a recent   interview with Asharq Al Awsat
Q) Do you think that Al Qaeda has become a threat or an ideology?
A) I think that Al Qaeda is a threat, not just to the West but to Muslims. Many more Muslims have been killed [...]

“Stand Firm on Settlements”

Back from a trip to Israel-Palestine, Professor Lynch, aka Abu Aardvark,  gets_straight_to_the_point:  I totally agree.
Obama has to stand tough on the settlement expansions if he hopes to not squander the tentative gains of the last few weeks — and, more broadly, to see his administration’s credibility on Israeli-Palestinian issues shattered forever.  This is going to be [...]

Reevaluation Time – Iran, the US, and the Arabs

Raghida Durham of Al-Hayat has an excellent analysis of the regional repercussions of the Iran crisis.  (Available in English here.)  Basically, she argues, due to the unprecedented challenge to the Iranian regime’s legitimacy, everyone in the region, especially the US, must “go back to the drawing board” and reconsider their approach to dealing with Iran.
One obvious area to watch [...]

Interview with AQ leader in Afghanistan

Al-Jazeera recently did a 45_minute_interview with the leader of  Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.   As_I’ve_said_before,  (in my view) between 90 and 99% of the strategic information that the USG wants and needs to know about enemy goals and intentions is widely available open-source.  It’s not a matter of recruiting spies  in back-alleys or breaking into safes James Bond-style, but rather opening [...]

The King is Dead

Even Al-Jazeera is in_on_the_coverage.  I first realized Michael Jackson’s global status a couple years ago while teaching an English class to a group of African refugees in Egypt.  For a homework assignment, I told each student to write a paragraph on a person they admire.  Most of the responses were predictable:  several said the Prophet Muhamed, [...]

New article on Iran

Flynn and Hillary Mann Leveret, together with Mohamed Merandi, a professor at Tehran University, have a new Politico_article entitled “Will Iran become Obama’s Iraq?”   This is a follow-up to  last_week’s ”Ahmedinijad won. Get Over It.”

Cleaning house in South Africa

Spotlight has been on Iran, but the US soccer team has been kicking $%& lately:
1) America_3,_Egypt_o
2) America_2,_Spain_0
I’m always amused when I meet non-Americans who like to remind me  how supposedly bad America is at soccer.  I’ve got a couple British friends who take special pride in highlighting how superior the talent level is in the UK [...]

Iran coverage at Al-Jazeera

Two interesting discussions:
1) The Tuesday episode of “The Opposite Direction” political talk-show.  Guests debate whether Iranian democracy is really democracy or just a big show?  One spoke very positively of the Iranian system and argued yes it is, the other called it a big show, and said no its not. 
2)  The 6/20 episode of “Open Dialogue,” another political [...]

It’s just that good……

 Kal from The Moor Next Door may have put together the  best English language piece  on Iran — anywhere in the world — over the last two weeks.  At every level, this is a gold-mine, combining deep strategic analysis of US National Security interests with an expert’s reading of the “Arab Street” and Arabic media.
On a similar note, no [...]

Must-read stuff…. UPDATED

Here’s an  excellent_discussion between an Egyptian and an Iranian from the Friday episode of Al-Jazeera’s What’s Behind the News.  I would like to know if a single American media outlet went to the trouble of seeking out and interviewing, on air, a single Iranian from inside Iran about the events of the last week and a half.  [...]

The Security Dilemma: the US and Iran

Make no mistake about it,  the_Security_Dilemma is at play right now between the US and Iran. 
For those who are not intimately familiar with IR theory ( to be honest, that includes me), I will try and explain the term.   Basically, it refers* to the dilemma that occurs when two  hostile states try to interpret each other’s intentions and figure out how they should [...]

“Khamenei throws down the gauntlet”

See Will Ward’s post at Iran in the Gulf.  A line seems to have been drawn in the sand.    Up through Saturday, protests were peaceful and tolerated but now the Supreme Leader is saying “Enough is Enough.”    According_to Abdel Bari Atwan it’s not  Musawi but Karbowi who is most adamant about pushing for demonstrations:
 هناك مدرستان [...]

A good piece

  Here’s another good  analysis from Al-Hayat.
UPDATE:  Here’s the same article translated_into_English.  For some context:  the author is a major  Arab voice, though much  more favorable to American foreign policy than most in the region.    I don’t believe she has special expertise on Iran but certainly is in the kind of position where she can pick up [...]

Defining ‘Reform’ in the Iranian context

I first  mentioned this two days ago:  many in the Western media are making the mistake of looking at Iran through an American lense, especially on the meaning of “reform.”    This shouldn’t be a surprise, however, because this almost always  happens with American coverage of the Middle East, especially when it comes to religion.  There is a sense amongst [...]

“Ahmedinejad won. Get over it.”

It’s no longer just Rob at some obscure blog.  The consensus is changing.  For those unfamiliar, the authors of this piece are mainstream and highly respected Iran specialists:
Without any evidence, many U.S. politicians and “Iran experts” have dismissed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s reelection Friday, with 62.6 percent of the vote, as fraud.
They ignore the fact [...]

No Speculation Zone: Fahmy Howedi on Iran Elections

THE FACTS: THINGS TO CONSIDER:  Fahmy Howedi is one of the top 2 or  3 most influential Arab journalists;  He is a widely respected expert on Iran and has extensive Iranian contacts;  He analyzes the election in his Tuesday column at Dar Al Shourouk.   
1)  Howedi is surprised that Ahmedi Nijad won decisively in the first round but doesn’t [...]

Wildly misreading Iran?

Has the US media, perhaps indulging in the illusion of some  “Obama effect,” widely misread support for the Iranian opposition?  Ken Ballen has been conducting extensive   polling_in_Iran which  suggests that they have. 
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President [...]

“The Bacevich Alternative”

Wow.  Must have been some event:
There was a moment when it seemed the swollen Washington crowd attending the annual meeting of the Center for a New American Security might get so pumped up by its own mission of salvation for the broader Middle East and Central Asia that it could take off like a rocket [...]