Dr. Hair Gel would like to apologize for bad timing. Like Grandmasta, he will be out of commision this week. Soon he will be without an internet connection until Tuesday, August 19th. Before he falls back into the dark ages (of reading, dare he say, printed newspapers!) Dr. HairGel brings to you ‘this week in the holyland’:
1) Israel preparing for a military offensive in Syria? Yup, it’s that time of the year again. In the dog days of summer, one can almost count on threats levied against both Israel and Syria for their “war preparations.” The story is so repetitive it has begun to sound like the boy who cried wolf too many times. For arguments sake, let’s dig past the surface.
An IDF drill in the Golan Heights seems to have sparked fears among Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his inner circle. Other than the drill itself, a specific quote by Israeli Defense Minister Barak may have caught Assad’s attention:
“We’re following the violations of the [regional] equilibrium by Hezbollah and Syria, and the strengthening beyond the fence…It’s not for nothing that we’re training here.”
Earlier this week Barak called out any plans to launch an offensive in the Gaza Strip. In a complete reversal from his and Israel’s position last year (when they did indeed launch raids into Gaza), Barak said:
“Even if Israeli forces stay there [Gaza] two years and destroy the Hamas regime down to the last office and the last activist, in the aftermath [Israel] is controlling another people against their will, and the Palestinian people, when they compare the two, will choose Hamas … and not those who talk peace.”
Upon first read Dr. Hair Gel was taken back at the change in Barak’s language. Could it be that he had war plans for Syria on his mind? Additionally, the IDF Chief of Staff was in Washington in late-July. The meeting supposedly dealt with pressuring Iran. Was that just a cover, or only part of a larger discussion that included Syria?
Grandmasta recently raised the possibility that Israel was behind the assassination of Syrian General Mohamed Suleiman. Perhaps that was a signal to a more aggressive Israel strategy. Speculating a bit, Israel could be entertaining plans to launch another air strike, identifying and destroying factories that procure arms for Hezbollah.
War between Israel and Syria by no means is certain. Again, this could just be recycled news, but the potential of an Israeli strike or a ground offensive crossing into the Syrian border is a news item to watch for further developments.
2) Israel offered a resolution for West Bank settlements that the PA rightly rejected. Dr. Hair Gel is very cynical of any offer Israel makes on West Bank settlements (discussed previously on this blog). The Jeruslaem Post article notes the plan offered 93% of the West Bank to Palestinians. But, the plan would have left Israel with all of Jerusalem and some surrounding settlements, which include heavily populated Palestinian territory (in East Jerusalem).
3) Leading negotiator (and former PM) for Palestinians Ahmed Qureia acknowledged that they are seriously considering a declaration of full citizenship rights in Israel. In short, the Palestinian negotiating team would be adopting a one state solution, a dramatic shift from the purpose of the post-Annapolis negotiations with Israel. The Palestinian leadership recognizes Israel’s position throughout the talks have been far from anything Palestinians could accept. Dr. Hair Gel believes that following through on threats to abandon a two state solution might actually put Palestinians in a better bargaining position than they are currently in. More on this next week.
Filed under: Israel-Palestine | Tagged: Ahmed Qureia, Dr Hair Gel, Ehud Barak, Gaza strip, Golan Heights, Haaretz, Hezbollah, IDF, Israel and Syria, Jerusalem Post, Mohamed Suleiman, West Bank settlements
Just one question: If the Palestinians renounce the option of a state of their own and adopt a one-state solution, what would stop Israel from agreeing and suggesting they take Jordanian citizenship while denying them any option of Israeli citizenship? The fact that Jordan doesn’t want them as much or more than Israel doesn’t complicates matters but doesn’t change the question.
israel apartied regime will never let the one state solution take place and accept the palestinians as citizens. cause if the palestinians were to have israeli citizenship they would easily become the majority and vote a palestinian leader to rule israel. no what we will see is the same old thing which is ‘basically make life hell for the palestinians and force them to leave’.once they have gone ,the land will be settled totally by jews.
I don’t necessarily agree Nick that Israel would never accept a one-state solution. Check out Ali Abunimah’s book “One Country.” As a two-state solution becomes increasingly impossible with facts on the ground – settlements, the wall, intermarriage, an Arab-Jewish population in Israel proper that threatens the “Jewishness” of the state anyway – there are fewer and fewer reasons not to accept the possibility. Absent a second unilateral withdrawal (from the West Bank) that would leave Palestinians again to figure things out for themselves and force a one state solution a negotiated one state solution is looking increasingly impossible. Qurei’s statement is indeed something to be looked at as a unilateral solution from the other side this time.
On a possible Israeli invasion of Syria…at this point, there are so many possible culprits of the Sulayman assassination (Israel, Russian mafia thugs angry at Sulayman taking cuts from arms deals, Iran warning Syria on its inability to protect its Hizballah proxy in Syria, an inside job, or even Syria’s historical nemesis Saudi Arabia), I don’t think we can use that as a harbinger of Israeli full-scale invasion. Even if Israel did assassinate both Mughniyah and Sulayman, it was probably more as a message for Syria to stop working so closely with Hizballah. Israel–though completely willing to frantically attempt legitimacy at an attack on an extremist group like HAMAS or Hizballah–would be much less likely to attempt an attack on Syria, knowing another front would follow from Hizballah (who they couldn’t even defeat single-handedly!) and possibly third and fourth fronts with HAMAS and even (though less likely judging by US verbal threats against it that would have a higher chance of coming to fruition than against the other groups) Iran, with its mutual defense agreement with Syria. Israel has also in the past year flown reconaissance missions and combat training flights over Syria, with no follow-up. My personal analysis – more Israeli muscle flexing.