Grandmasta is En Route

Posting will be light to non-existent for the next 24 hours as Grandmasta makes his way to the kickoff event of the 2008 MediaShack MidEast Tour.  But then expect constant on-location posting throughout

Yemen and Counter-Terrorism

The government of Yemen’s laissez faire attitude to counter-terrorism  is the subject of two articles in today’s Washington Post.   This front-page piece has a heavy emphasis on Yemen’s refusal to imprison known Al-Qaeda suspects or extradite them to the US.  How to deal with terrorism in Yemen is the source of a long-running tension between the State Department and FBI which dates to the USS Cole bombing.  (See Lawrence Wright’s classic for a detailed acount) In the second article,  Ali Soufran, who also  played a major role with the FBI in Yemen,  criticizes both Barbara Bodine, the US ambassador to Yemen at the time of the USS Cole attack,   and the Yemeni government, arguing that “If Yemen is truly an ally, it should act as an ally. Until it does, U.S. aid to Yemen should be reevaluated. It will be impossible to defeat al-Qaeda if our “allies” are freeing the convicted murderers of U.S. citizens and terrorist masterminds while receiving direct U.S. financial aid.”

Soufran has a point.  The way some of these Yemeni prisoners are treated is a joke:

In January 2004, under pressure from the United States, Yemeni authorities arrested him. But two years later he escaped from a maximum security prison in Sanaa, along with 22 other inmates. He resurfaced nearly three months ago, on Feb. 23, when he walked unannounced into a cramped Sanaa courtroom, escorted by four bodyguards. Interrupting a trial of other al-Qaeda suspects, he told the judge his name and declared that all charges against him were bogus. “I haven’t committed any crimes in this country or in the United States,” he said.

But the big question is whether  Yemen is  capable of doing more?  Does the government have the political capital or the physical ability to make a more intensive effort to combat radical Jihadists? If not, might it be better to have a pro-US regime that makes a  half-hearted effort versus a radical anti-American government that makes no effort at all? 

On another note, the Yemeni government did play a major role in one major counter-terrorism coup which they don’t get credit for.  Sayyid Imam, the leader of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, and leader of the groups ideological revisions, was extradited to Cairo from Yemen and this move was the catalyst of Jihad’s revisions.  Since the late 1990s, members of Jihad had tried to sponsor initiatives to end violence but these attempts failed because of intense inter-Group rivalries.  Noone wanted to let the other faction get credit.  Sayyid Imam, as the former Emir and chief ideologue of the movement, possessed unparalleled influence and respect from the rank-and-file and pushed the group towards changing its ideology which has been a major  blow to al-Qaeda.    Without Yemen’s decision to arrest him and send him to Cairo, Jihad likely would not have or could not have had made the decision to formally give up violence.

Struggle for Lebanon

First posted yesterday in Arabic, Al-Hayat’s Raghida Durham has a must-read piece on the recent events in Lebanon entitled “Lebanon’s Battle In Light of the Struggle for Regional Domination.”  The author summarizes a number of interpretations of the chaos and makes the interesting claim that  “Israel’s silence, over turning Lebanon into what is almost an Iranian base through Hezbollah’s weapons, is very suspicious and has deep implications. It indicates a calculated policy to sustain the strategic truce-based relationship between Iran and Israel.”

Who won or lost the Battle for Lebanon?  According to Tariq Al-Homayed Hezbullah is the decisive loser.  Keep in mind he writes for pro-Saudi Asharq Al-Awsat and has been fiercely anti-Hezbullah throughout but his arguement is feasible.  One point of interest:  “The Druze will not forget the battle of the mountain and how the intruders infiltrated and entered into the Druze areas guised as farmers; however when things heated up, they were revealed to be agents of Hezbollah.”  Either Al-Homayed is a blatant sectarian agitator or Hezbullah really did go on a rampage. 

Back in the USSR

A few weeks back Funkenstein posted about a favorable portrayal of the history of Saudi-Soviet Relations in Asharq Al-Awsat.  In this week’s Al-Ahram Weekly, Rumy Hassan  argues that the USSR played a much greater role in the creation of Israel than they are often credited for:

The truly shocking fact in this version of the “Great Game” is that the victims were contemptuously ignored, as if they were mere cattle. It is my contention that the Soviet Union’s role in the creation of Israel and the Nakba should be accorded greater significance than the Balfour Declaration of 1917; yet it is the latter that attracts far more attention.  So when Israelis and their supporters celebrate the 60th anniversary, they ought to give a special toast to the role played by the Soviet Union; equally, as Palestinians drown in sorrow for the Nakba, they ought to raise an accusatory finger at those who took them to the path of perdition, not least the Soviet Union.

Thats a pretty bold statement.  Grandmasta’s not convinced but the article’s worth reading…. On another note, this topic makes for a great song.

MediaShack Mid-East Tour 2008

Its Official!!  For months now, Grandmasta Splash’s agent has been nagging him about doing a series of rap concerts in Cairo.  Finally,  he decided to say yes, and takes this occasion to announce the 2008 MediaShack Egypt Tour.   Cairo hasn’t seen a musical act of this caliber since this  classic in 2005.  Here’s some of the other stuff on the agenda:

-Taking a Dip in the Nile.  Grandmasta can hear readers laughing but he is serious.  Don’t knock it till you’ve tried it.
-Working on his tan.  Funkenstein’s balcony is perfect for sun-bathing.
-Flipping out if Morgan Ahmed Morgan isn’t out on CD-DVD yet.
-Doing some serious blogging
-Watching the Champions League Final at the Sh3biest  possible street cafe with several hundred of his closest Egyptian friends.
-Catching up with the  pulse of the “Arab Street”

Expect continous on-location posting throughout the entire period. 

Sectarian Strife in Northern Lebanon

The LA Times and the Christian Science Monitor have had excellent coverage of Lebanon, but from Beirut and mostly focusing on the big-picture political issues.  Less covered has been the sectarian strife in Northern Lebanon.  Baysan Al-Shaikh has a special investigation in today’s Al-Hayat.  Here are some of the main points.

-The North saw fighting between the Syrian Social Nationalist Party and local Sunnis.  Members of the SSNP refused to evacucate one of their “centers,”  which was then surrounded and some people were killed.  Later on Sunnis stormed the Hosptal where one of the injured had been taken, finishing off one of them.  However, the Hospital director, with the help of State Security, managed to smuggle the second wounder fighter out of the hospital. 
-This fighting is less a reaction to the recent incidents in Beirut then part of a longer conflict which has its roots during the Syrian occupation.  Sunnis were getting revenge against the SSNP for their actions during the Occupation.
-Northern Sunnis see themselves as betrayed by Future Leadership in Beirut, who refused to arm them and made a formal decision not to enter any clashes with Hezbullah.
-Because of Harriri movement failures, the Salafis are in position to fill the security gap.  Dai’ Al-Islam Al-Shahel, founder of the Lebanese Salafis, declared that the situation will only get worse if the Salafis don’t step.  However, he denies calls for “Jihad,” and emphasized that he is calling for “self-defense” just as Sunnis in Iraq are fighting against American and Shia agression. 
-In North Lebanon a grendade goes for $17, an RPG for $99 and an AK for $700-1200.  
-The Rent-a-Cop security firm, Secure Plus,  which did so poorly, is headed by Mohamed Ajuz, a retired Army general.  The Tripoli branch is headed by Mustafa Al-Qarhani, also a retired Army General. 

Sudan’s Prince of the Mujahideen

On Tuesday, Ash-Sharq al-Awsat ran a profile of Khalil Ibrahim, the leader of the Sudanese/Darfur Justice and Equality Movement, which has been rebelling against the central government since 2001.  I provided a full translation of the profile in the comments section of Media Shack’s original post on Sudan.  I put it there so it didn’t take up too much space on the main page.

Crazy Summer Vacation in Lebanon?

The Lebanese Forces Website has a link to a good article by Mitchel Prothero of US NEWS entitled “Lebanon May Attract Sunnis Seeking to Wage Jihad.”  Whoever one blames for starting the recent conflict, it does seem likely that Lebanon has become “the next can’t-miss destination for radicals seeking a violent summer,” as if offers everything a Jihadist needs such as ”sectarian tensions, a weak central government, and what many Al-Qaeda followers would consider the best neighborhood imaginable, right on Israel’s northern border.”

Hezbullah sees this coming and has already made preparations:

“We are worried about this and watching it closely” a Hezbullah ground commander said last week.  “We know they will be coming here now.” Hezbullah, according to the commander, has plans in place for such attacks, including a plan to close of Shiite neighborhoods from the rest of the city. It also has a formidable intelligence service already tasked with watching for Iraq veterans trying to illegally enter from Syria.

Given Lebanese Sunni anger over the recent events (see last few days of MediaShack posts), there is probably some degree of local ”demand” for anyone that is willing to help defend them, even if they are foreign fanatics.  How many will come is unknown. Grandmasta doubts more than a few hundred.  It also seems that the US/Europe/Allies  have a major security interest in rearming some of the Harriri militias and getting them back up in the North so that the locals there don’t see Al-Qaeda types as their only security guarantee.

UPDATE: Asharq Al-Awsat’s Tariq Al-Homayed, whose column has been loaded with inflammatory anti-Hezbullah rhetoric, also sees a potential potential storm  brewing:

…Al Shahal (founder of Lebanese Salafi movement) stressed that, “In light of the present circumstances, the dangerous allegations and the deep wound that has been inflicted upon the Sunni sect, to its body and dignity, we proclaim the necessity of a general mobilization to organize the Sunni sect.” …Al Shahal’s statements are but the first step forward; there is an alarming suppression on the Sunni street and the circulating reports indicate that there are immense pressures on Saad Hariri to arm the Sunnis but that Hariri wants to be remembered as the son of Rafik Hariri who lived and died without causing bloodshed – not as Saad Nasrallah.   The question today is: Will the loyalists hold steadfast? Or will they become consumed by anger while al Shahal and others fill the arena? And all of this, of course, is a product of Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s extremism, with Syria’s support.

Will they or will they not?  Thats the million dollar question.

Angry Sunni Officers Want Out

One theme of the recent events in Lebanon is that Sunnis are VERY VERY ticked off.  At Harriri forces for not protecting them but also at Hezbullah/Amal for rampaging against them.    See this post here and this one here.  Now the Sunnis  want to do something about it.  Some  are trying to  create  a “political and military bloc capable of confronting what Hezbollah had done in Beirut and other Lebanese areas.” And today, Asharq Al-Awsat reports that 40 Sunni officers in the Lebanese Army are threatening to  resign in protest of the Army’s refusal to  in defense of the Sunnis against alleged Shia agression.

A Deal in Lebanon

The Arab League seems to have brought at least a temporary calm to Lebanon.  The BBC has a good article describing the details.  So does Daily Star Beirut.   See Angry Arab’s site for a good analysis of the deal : ” Wake up the children and release the pigs from the barn. The Arab League delegation in Lebanon announced the accord. Politically, the opposition got what it wanted…and more…..

UPDATE: Borzo has another good piece in the LA TImes on the “deal” to stop the fighting.  Grandmasta wants to give a special MediaShack  salute to the LA Times and Christian Science Monitor whose coverage of Lebanon has been LIGHT YEARS ahead of the NY Times or Post.

Book Review: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda

Grandmasta had totally forgotten about this classic work on AQ until he came across a review of it at Al-Jazeera.net.   Abdel Bari Atwan is the editor of Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper and a highly respected journalist who conducted personal interviews with Bin Laden. His book The Secret History of AL-Qaeda is essential reading because it gives Western readers a highly sophisticated Arab perspective of the Al-Qaeda phenemonen. 

Al-Qaeda Rising to the Occasion in Lebanon?

Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s  April 21st comment that Lebanon would the site of “future battles against the Crusaders” inspired a number of reactions in the Arabic press. Al-Quds Al-Arabi and Al-Hayat  argued that Lebanon’s  political stalemate (no President since November)  was creating the kind of anarchic conditions that Al-Qaeda needs to thrive.   A few week previously, Al-Akhbar’s  Fida’ `Itani had published a ten-part series on Al-Qaeda in Lebanon, which made a convincing case that the group has a clear logistical foothold, especially in the Palestinian refugee camps.  But Bilal Saab, in a May 6th  op-ed in Al-Hayat argued that while Al-Qaeda has a logistical base in Lebanon they are not a serious threat to the status quo because only a small minority of Lebanese Sunnis agree with their radical religous ideology. And even those who do, such as Fatah Al-Islam, are not inclined to agree with Zawahiri’s call for violence.  Grandmasta thought Saab’s analysis was accurate-on May 6th.  However,  ‘Itani has a piece in today’s Al-Akhbar which suggests that that equation may have changed during the last 10 days of fighting.  According to the article, the mistakes of the Opposition and the retreat of Harririism are pushing more and more Sunnis into the Salafi camp.  

Summary
Just two weeks ago,  high ranking officials in the Lebanese security apparatus would have laughed if you mentioned the topic of Al-Qaeda in Lebanon.  How could Al-Qaeda have a presence in Lebanon given the Harriri movement’s omnipresence in Sunni circles?  And even if there was a Salafi movement, it varied between silent animosity towards Harriri and total support for Sa’ad in his position as leader of the Sunnis.  Therefore, it wasn’t necessarily firmly tied to AQ.

However, the collapse of the Mustaqbil (Harriri) movement in the past two weeks has changed things.  To understand this we have to look at some long-term sectarian root causes that Saudi Arabia is responsible for.   For example, the Mufti of Saudi Arabia issued a series of Fatwas which said that  “what is occurring in Lebanon is a concerted effort to facilitate the Zionist admission into the land of Islam.  But this is not the first time the Mufti has issued a fatwa against Hezbullah and the Shia.  During the 2006 war, he said it was Harem to bless/pray for/encourage Hezbullah’s campaign against Israel.  These types of fatwas encouraged a sectarian nature to the conflict, which was not present before.

In the last two weeks, Future has been driven out of North Lebanon  and ”Oppposition” (Hezbullah)  forces have allegedly been brutal in their attacks on Sunnis.   As a result, a  new phenomenon is emerging in the North.   Harriri fighters are no longer able to protect Sunnis in the North, and because of heavy handed attacks from Hezbullah, some Sunnis are taking matters into their own hands.  On May 11th, there was a meeting of Independent Islamists, which issued a proclamation in the name of Khalid Al-Dahir, a former MP, announcing the creation of the National Islamic Resistance to combat Shia militias.  “The Sunnis will react to this aggression against their sanctity and efforts to marginalize their role.  We have all the capabilities to do this.” The next day, May 12th, the founder of the Lebanese Salafi movement, Dai’ Al-Islam Al-Shahel, (see more on him in this post) held a press conference saying “it is essential that we repulse these threats.”  (See this very good  English language article for more on this point)

 It is now possible to speak of “Sunni Jihadism,” which probaly feels most threated not by Israel, but by Shia militias.   Because of the Future Movement’s failures, the Sunnis have now become divided into two levels.  The first consists of the educated, the rich, and the well-off who align themselves with the West and the US.  Then there is a larger group which consists of the poor, and those whose dignity has been quashed, and who no longer see Saad Al-Hariri as someone who can deliver their needs.  This second group now takes refuge in the mosques and God and has become more sympathetic to the words of Bin Laden and Zawahiri. 

Commentary
-One caveat: Al-Akhbar is considered liberal, secular, pro-Syrian, and anti-US Foreign policy. But what Itani is reporting is consistent with the information that is coming out of other sources.

-Itani is  essentially blaming both sides.  The Sunnis played the sectarian card.  But if they wanted to play that card they should have been prepared to back themselves up if the s*^# hit the fan.  Clearly, the Rent-A-Cops didn’t get the job done.  Now Al-Qaeda/Radical Salafis are filling the gap Harriri left behind.  On the other hand, Hezbullah/Amal’s heavy-handedness following the Harirri collapse has made Sunnis more amenable to the Salafis who are the only one’s who are in position to protect them at this point.  If Hezbullah had showed more discipline the Salafis would have had less of an oppurtunity.  If these reports are true, its bad news for the US and its allies in Lebanon. 

-Grandmasta has constantly argued that Al-Qaeda’s strength is only as signifigant as its place in the overall society it resides in.  It doesn’t matter if AQ has a highly organized and motivated leadership structure if 99% of Lebanese Sunnis reject their ideology.  It doesn’t matter if Abu Yaha Al-Libi is becoming a rising star in Al-Qaeda if noone has ever heard of him on the streets of Libya.  There is almost nowhere in the Arab world where Al-Qaeda operates outside of the farthest fringe.  However, ‘Itani is suggesting that this is changing in Lebanon and if this is true it is worrying. Grandmasta is skeptical but he will be following this issue more closely so expect to hear about any follow-up stories on this topic.

Hezbullah the New Phalange?

In an Al-Hayat op-ed Abdullah Iskandar makes a  comparison between Bachir  Gemayel and Hassan Nasrallah.

There is something in common between the political projects for Lebanon that the late President Bashir Gemayel previously tried to accomplish and Hezbollah’s Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is currently attempting to undertake. While the objectives of the state were completely different, the similarity between the two cases was in the perception of the state, its role, the means of constructing it, and its structure…Both projects were based on the assumption that the nation was under occupation, Palestinian and Syrian according to the former, and Israeli according to the latter. Both considered the state and its army were unable to confront this occupation, and consequently, military forces had to be established in place of the state military to fight the occupation and to launch the resistance movement dubbed the “Lebanese Resistance” by Gemayel and the “Islamic Resistance” by Nasrallah.

The author makes some good points but makes seems to make alot of assumptions about Hezbullah’s intentions. 

Mr. Egypt on the May 4th Strikes

Mr. Egypt has a long response to Grandmasta’s summary/analysis of an Al-Jazeera op-ed on the May 4th Strikes. 

I  also agree that Mubarak regime is strong, but it fears the pubic, especially that its well known –especially with the recent price raise- that strength of the regime relies in the major cities, and lacks the feeling of fear between the people in other areas which was proven especially in the incidents of el-Mahala el-Kubra.I believe that the prevalence of Mubarak regime relies basically on 2 factors, its relationship and ties with major powers in the region USA, Israel those who can not tolerate a real democratic government in the country, not because this would bring an Islamist government, but a greater threat is nationalist government that believes in the solidarity with the Palestinian cause, anti-American, in other words, it would have a totally different agenda that would necessarily contradict with several actors in the region. In the same time Egypt lacks a real alternative to the existing regime thus one can notice a feeling of depression, frustration, fear, even defeat among the public, this point I think is pretty crucial, since the actual strength of the regime relies in the absence of adversaries not merely the domination of the bureaucratic system of the state which holds a lot of resentment against the wielders of power.

 Read the rest here.

Who’s Got the Best Fightsong?

Grandmasta was wondering which Lebanese militia has the best anthem?  Hezbullah’s Nasheed is indicative of the group’s religous orientation and probaly inspiring if you are a Shia Muslim.  On the Christian side, the Phalange fight-song is very Mussolini-esque. No word on whether the Rent-A-Cop militias had gotten around to writing something before the s&%@ hit the fan.  However,  none of these Lebanese songs can hold a candle to the most electrifying anthem of them all.  Who doesn’t get goosebumps watching this clip?

We got your back (Sort of)

Good reporting from the LA Times Borzo Daragahi in “Lebanon Reaches out for International Help.”

Shaken by a Hezbollah military offensive in recent days, Lebanon’s pro-Western parties have launched an intensive campaign to lobby allies in Washington, Europe and the Arab world to intervene diplomatically or even militarily on their behalf, officials here said.

But there was little sign Monday that the West was prepared to intervene.  The coalition of pro-Western Christian, Sunni and Druze politicians under the so-called March 14 banner has embarked on an effort to draw international backers into the conflict, said coalition leaders and Western diplomats.   The faction’s officials have telephoned contacts in the White House and the State Department and deployed lobbyists in Washington to press the U.S. government, Mouawad said.

Yet so far, not much success.  Grandmasta wonders why?  Maybe this is the answer:

But the use of force appeared unlikely. The Pentagon squashed rumors that the U.S. warship Cole, steaming to the Mediterranean Sea from the Persian Gulf, was responding to the Lebanon crisis…”Yes, we are maintaining a watchful eye on the area, but not any more than we have been recently,” a Defense official in Washington told The Times, speaking on condition of anonymity.  Unlike Iraq or the Persian Gulf, Lebanon is devoid of strategically vital oil and gas reserves. But March 14 supporters hope the Americans and others will come to their aid.”We’re not asking them to fight our fight for us,” said Mouawad, the minister. “But at least don’t let us be slaughtered by total indifference.”

What would happen if the US abandoned Lebanon? 

Sunni vs Shia or Resistance vs the US?

The 5/10 episode of the Al-Jazeera talk show “Open Discussion/Dialogue” covered the conflict  in Lebanon.  The program hosted two clerics from vastly differing ideological perspectives.  Speaking from Tripoli was Da’i Al-Islam Al-Shahel, “founder of the Salafi movement in Lebanon.”  Joining the program from Saidon was Shaikh Maher Hammud (see his website), a Shia cleric with close ties to Hezbullah.  It is worth noting that despite their  ideological differences the exchange was civil and both guests prefaced each disagreement with phrases such as “With great respect to my brother…etc, etc.   The program generally discussed the following questions: Is what is happening in Lebanon a sectarian Sunni-Shia conflict?   Has Hezbullah launched a military coup d’etat? Or is the conflict a political struggle between the allies of America and those who oppose it? 

The first third of the program got caught up in a debate about the historical roots of the current struggle.   Al-Shahel claimed that the violence is part of a Shia power-grab which dates to the early 1980s after the PLO was kicked out of Lebanon.  Filling the gap of the Sunni-PLO  was Shia Amal and Hezubullah which were backed by Syria and Iran.  According to Al-Shahel’s narrative, non-Sunni Syria and Iran propped up  Shia Amal/Hezbullah as a way for them to gain control over Lebanon.    Humuum countered  that this was an incorrect reading of history because Amal and Hezbullah have often fought against each other and have been both supported and opposed by Syria and Iran according to their political calculations.   After fifteen minutes of haggling over this point, the host intervened, saying that “We want to focus on the situation in 2008, not 1984 and 1985. 

-Hummued argued that the conflict is not a  Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict.  Rather it is a political Sunni-Shia response to the American-Israeli program in the region.  He cited “a newspaper”  that wrote that there is an Israeli plan to provoke sectarian conflict in Lebanon. … However, the vast majority of Lebanese and Arabs are not convinced that Hezbullah is a sectarian instigator and has made a strong case that the struggle is against the American axis and should not be seen as Sunni-Shia strife.  On the other hand, the 14 March coalition has  failed at convincing their supporters of their case. 

-Q: Are you saying that Hezbullah is a sectarian group, represents Iran, and exploits its Resistance against Israel as a way of imposing Shia hegemony on Lebanon? 
A: (Al-Shahel) ; My brother, listen to me for a second.  Who founded Hezbullah?  It was founded by Syria and Iran who have a political agenda.  Therefore, this current struggle is founded upon sectarian conflict. .. We aren’t necessarily against Amal or Hezbullah in everything they do politically.  We strongly agree with their Resistance against Israel.  However, we are angry that they prevent Sunnis from participating in the fighting against Israel.  Why did they prevent the people of Saidon (and quwat Al-Fajir) from joining the fight? 

- Humud tried to return to some of Al-Shahel’s points about the historical roots of the conflcit but the moderator intervened saying they need to move on.  Humud insisted, saying that if Al-Shahel wanted to focus on Amal’s actions in the war of the Camps in the 1980s, why wasn’t he focusing on the crimes of Samir Ja’ja’ and Walid Junblatt, members of the March 14 coalition who were equally guilty of crimes.  Everyone committed atrocities in the Civil War therefore its intellectually inconsistent for Al-Shahel to argue that Amal/Hezbullah atrocities were an indication of a special Shia sectarian trend.

-At the end of the program Al-Shahel responded to Humud’s claim that the conflict is not sectarian, by making a number of accusations about Shia behavior in Lebanon. For examle, he asked ”If the conflict is political, then why are they spreading Shia books in Sunni areas?  Why do they spread doubt about the Prophet’s Companions or the Rightly Guided Caliphs?  According to Al-Shahel, this is evidence that the conflict is not political but sectarian.  Hummud countered by saying that if that type of activity goes on it is at the initiative of individuals and is not part of any organized Shia campaign. 

Asleep at the Wheel in Sudan?

Lost in the media shuffle of recent events in  Iraq and Lebanon is the attack by Darfur’s Justice and Equality Movement on Khartoum.  In an extremely audacious assault, a few thousand revels crossed the open desert and got as far as the suburbs of the Capital.  Predictably, the Sudanese government blames the government of Chad and Hassan Turabi for instigating the attack.  However, Al-Quds Al-Arabi sees it a bit differently.  Today’s lead editorial is entitled ”A Dangerous Penetration in Sudan.”

Summary
The events of  Omdurman are still very confusing.  The important question is “How did the Rebels get that far without the Security forces knowing?”  True, the Sudanese Army succeeded in crushing the rebellion.  But how did the rebels get so close to the capital in the first place?

In defense of the Sudanese government, Justice and Equality probaly had outside help.    Perhaps Chad wanted to avenge Khartoum’s (along with France) support for the Chadian opposition forces which succeeded in getting to the capital and putting the President’s headquarters under siege. ..But the blame can’t be placed solely on Chad, but rather the Sudanese military and security forces.  Sudan has been in a state of war for years, so its forces should have been prepared to deter these kind of attacks, but that was obviously not the case.  Arresting Hassan Turabi is just a way to deflect blame from the army’s own shortcomings.   The Sudanese government must investigate this incident because the Sudanese people have a right to know what happened.

Omar Nasri

Interestingly, Al-Hayat is running a 3 part series of  excerpts from Omar Nasri’s  Inside the Jihad: My Life with Al-Qaeda; A Spy’s Story.  Here’s Part One and Two.  Seems a bit odd given that the book came out over two years ago.

Arabic Coverage of Lebanon Crisis

Who is to blame for the recent crisis in Lebanon?  Arabic papers widely disagee. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, a Saudi-linked paper, the burden falls on the Party of God.  In “Hezbullah; The Ugliest Picture,”  Tariq Al-Homayed holds nothing back :

In his speech after the coup on Lebanon and its infrastructure, Hassan Nasrallah claimed that millions of dollars were spent in an effort to defame him and distort the image of the “divine party.” However it was the actions of his party that exposed the armed resistance lie and the falsehood of Hassan Nasrallah’s enthusiasm for Lebanon and the unity of its composition…Hassan Nasrallah for that last two years swore that his weapons would never be directed inside his own country. These images have exposed the falsehoods and revealed Hezbollah’s intentions for Lebanon. Since when has an oppositional entity announced its victory by raising the portrait of another country’s leader in its capital? And what opposition hangs pictures of Iran’s Supreme Guide on walls and streets of Lebanon’s Sunni neighborhoods? Is there a greater example of subversion then this?

In “Hezbullah: Defeat of Victory:“ Al-Homayed is equally scathing:

Hezbollah has ventured upon a crime that will never be forgiven by the Lebanese and Arabs as it has stirred up the abhorrent spirit of sectarianism. The military power thinks highly of [Sayyed Hassan] Nasrallah and in my opinion this power cannot be broken by anybody in Beirut. This is wrong because provoking sectarianism amid a large number of Sunnis is suicidal.

However, Al-Quds Al-Arabi has a different tone.  The London-based Pan-Arab daily is more sympathetic (or objective) to Hezbullah.  Today’s lead editorial is entitled: “The Lebanese Crisis is Not Sectarian.”  Here’s a Summary:

In recent days violence has increased in Lebanon, which has caused the Arab League to urgently send a delegation to Lebanon in the hope of resolving the conflict… Conflict has spead to the Mountain area, following the Oppositions takeover of West Beirut. …Walid Jumblatt, still under seige in his headquarters, has negotiated with his Druze rival/enemy Talal Arsalan who is alligned with the Opposition, in order to gauruntee the safety of his Druze constituents,  who may be exposed to revenge attacks given Jumblatt’s role in instigating the conflict.  Jumblatt stated that  these inocent Druze should not pay the price for his position against the Opposition.  Hopefully Nasrallah will respond positively to his call and instruct his fighters to be self-disciplined and avoid attacks on these innocents…Hopefully,  the March 14 Coalition, especially Hariri and Jumblatt will realize that the foreign forces (US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt) which encouraged them to provoke the conflict, have abandoned them (except for shallow verbal decrees of support).  On another note,  the claim that the current conflict is sectarian is completely incorrect, because the Opposing forces include members of a variety of different sects.  For example, the Opposition includes Michael Aoun’s (Christian) movement, the Druze leader Talal Arsalan, and Sunni’s Amr Karami and Skiekh Yakin (sp?).  Therefore it is not a Sunni vs Shia conflict. 

However, Hezbullah, the winner of the struggle, must understand it can’t govern Lebanon alone, even if it has the military capabilities.  In conclusion, the Arab League must explain this reality to the parties, especially the Opposition, and let both sides know that gambling on foreign powers will not create a political solution to Lebabon’s problems.  Rather it will make them worse or even destroy the country. 

Also in today’s Al-Quds Al-Arabi is an op-ed by Madawi al -Rashid a “writer and academic” from the Arabian Gulf.  The title might be translated as “Hassan Nasrallah: Don’t Fall for their Bait/Trap.”

The Sectarian scourge which has been so effective at tearing apart Arab society has finnaly arrived in Beirut.  However, it will become worse if Hassan Nasrallah does not take steps to prevent it from spreading.   Because of his unprecedented stand against Israel in 2006,  Nasrallah has gained a level of legitimacy in the Arab world not seen since Gamal Abdel Nasser.  But  after Israel failed in 2006, they  (along with Arab regimes/US) attempted to provoke Hezbullah into engaging in an inter-Lebanon sectarian struggle which would  ruin its reputation.   All of the previous ideas of Pan-Arabism, which had united the various people of the region, were dropped in favor of Sectarian agitation (encouraged by Arab regimes).   This is what  happened in Iraq and Yemen, and this plague is at the heart of the current conflcit in Lebanon.

So Hassan Nasrallah has two choices.  Either he can engage in sectarian conflict which is exactly what the Sunni governments want him to do. Or he can rise above it. If Hezbullah chooses the first option, Iraq-style strife will come to Lebanon,  Hezbullah will be exposed as just another sectarian militia and Nasrallah just another warlord..  But if he holds his ground, and does not take the bait, there is no foreign force that will succeed in defeating Hezbullah.  

Commentary:
Its too early to say how Hezbullah will come out of this crisis.  But what seems alot safer to say is that Walid Jumblatt comes out of this looking really really bad.

-A MediaShack reader has been following Al-Arabiya (also Saudi-financed) quite closely and tipped us off that the English language content of their website has been more sectarian than their Arabic version.  This seems like an important point, and Grandmasta will be looking into it more closely.